Despite the headlines, ruffled feathers, and self-aggrandizing tweets, stock markets have marched upward very consistently since Mr. Trump took office this year. Interest rates on both ends of the yield curve continue to tick higher, and equities in the international and emerging markets have also been strong. At this point, we need to prepare for the inevitable time when the levy breaks. U.S. stock markets are quite expensive on a historical basis, and our current 10-year bull run is one of the longer growth cycles in history.
While I never advocate for investors to time the markets, or change course because they expect a market downturn, we do need to understand that this level of calm is not the norm. I can’t tell you when or how the next market crash will occur, only that it will happen eventually. To prepare, investors should ensure that their strategic asset allocation fits their objectives and comfort with risk like a glove. If you’re uncomfortable with the idea of a stock market crash, it’s probably time to reassess your portfolio.