Investing

Market Update: Q2 2019

Market Update: Q2 2019

After a very strong first quarter in global stocks, the U.S. stock and bond markets are telling very different stories. The stock market continues to lurch higher, driven by expected earnings, economic growth, and investor optimism. The bond market, on the other hand, is not so optimistic. A flattening and even inverted yield curve shows far less optimism in the U.S. economy.

The “right” take is probably somewhere in between these two extremes. The economic data shows a mixed bag. Jobless claims are at a 50-year low, but payroll gains in March came in lower than expected. The ISM Manufacturer’s Index was up sharply in March, but retail sales and durable goods orders fell.

Internationally, we continue to watch the UK Brexit proceedings and the country’s wrestling match with the European Union (and itself). First quarter stock returns were very strong abroad as well, but a key leading indicator shows that trouble may be brewing. This quarter’s market review will tackle all these topics, in addition to a very strong quarter for real estate investment trusts (REITs).

Market Update: Q1 2019

Market Update: Q1 2019

As bloody as the fourth quarter of 2018 was, the beginning of 2019 has almost erased all the damage. The S&P 500 is only a couple points off the early Q4 high, and global stock indices are following in lockstep.

So does that mean we should expect stocks to continue rocketing upward? Probably not. Economic data has slowed somewhat, and if the market continued at its current pace to start the year, stocks would be up 65%. Which is…..unlikely.

The Federal Reserve is still signaling several rate hikes throughout the year, but has relaxed the pace somewhat after some weaker economic numbers. This quarter’s market update will dig into what’s going on in the economy, and how that could affect stock and bond markets both here and abroad.

Market Update: Q3 2018

Market Update: Q3 2018

Normally when I write my quarterly market update, I don’t begin until a few days after the quarter’s ended. This gives me time to digest the data from the previous three months, and synthesize it into (hopefully useful) thoughts about what’s going on in the markets and in the world, and how that might impact your portfolio.

I also get some help with the research. You’ll notice many of the charts I use come from Dimensional Fund Advisors, and I leverage economic & financial data from many of the financial periodicals I read, like Barron’s, Wall St. Journal, and Financial Times.

I’m starting with this background because U.S. stock markets had a very strong third quarter, with the S&P 500 up 7.71%. In the first few days of the fourth quarter, the story has been starkly different. The Dow Jones fell about 800 points yesterday, and the financial media would have you believe the world is about to end.

To put some context to yesterday’s drop, the S&P 500 fell 97 points. This represents about 3.4% of its total value. Since the bear market in 2009 ended, yesterday marks the S&P’s 20th day losing 3% or greater.

And as painful as it is to see the value of your portfolio fall, we really haven’t lost that much ground. As I write this, the index is trading at about 2770, which is a low we haven’t seen since….June.

So before we dive into what happened in the third quarter, don’t be alarmed if the current sell off continues. It was always bound to happen. My guess is that it’s only a short term “pressure release valve”. But even if it’s not, your strategy shouldn’t change because the market lost a few points. Your portfolio should be built with this expectation in the first place.

How & When to Execute a Back Door Roth IRA Conversion

How & When to Execute a Back Door Roth IRA Conversion

If you asked me to choose my FAVORITE type of account to invest in, it would definitely be the Roth IRA. Roth IRAs allow you to save money tax free for the rest of your life. They’re not subject to mandatory withdrawals in your 70’s, and your kids won’t even owe taxes on their withdrawals if they inherit the account from you down the road. In my opinion the Roth IRA is just about the best deal out there.

Problem is, they’re not accessible to everyone. The IRS considers Roth IRAs such a good deal that they won’t let you contribute to one if you make too much money. Fortunately, there’s a work around: the backdoor Roth IRA conversion. The backdoor Roth conversion allows you to get money into the Roth IRA by making non-deductible contributions to a traditional IRA. Don’t worry if this sounds complicated. This post will cover exactly how the strategy works and when you might consider using it.

Market Update: Q2 2018

Market Update: Q2 2018

Stock markets here in the U.S. are traditionally pretty quiet over the summertime.  The kids are out of school, the weather is hot, and many financial managers, traders, and practitioners prefer to spend their time on vacation or in the pool. 

But like many industries, finance is changing rapidly today, and traditions are being upheld less frequently.  This summer, while the markets have more or less adhered to the summertime lull tradition, the financial news has not.  Among other topics of note, we have:

  • New tariffs on imports here in the U.S., and escalating trade tensions as a result;

  • Unceasing & fresh political headlines, and;

  • A tightening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve Bank here in the U.S.  

In response to all this, markets here in the U.S. haven't blinked.  (Or maybe they haven't opened their eyes yet).  Volatility continues to be extremely low compared to the last 25 years of returns data.  And that includes the returns of bonds and foreign currencies too, not just stocks. 

Nevertheless, even if the market doesn't feel that all this news is worth rolling over for, it's important for us to keep an eye on what's going on.  Read on for our quarterly update on the global capital markets.

Trade War? What Trade War?

Trade War?  What Trade War?

If you’ve been following the news recently, you’ve probably run across a headline or two about the impending trade wars with China and other countries.  It seems like wherever you pick your news, from the left-leaning sources like The Huffington Post to right-leaning sources like Fox News, the media has unilaterally lambasted the strategy.  I’ve seen the headline “economic suicide” thrown around more than once.

Free Online Training: Market Volatility Survival Guide

If you’ve been paying any kind of attention to the markets over the last two months, you’ve probably noticed a new trend: volatility.  Consistent market volatility isn’t something we’ve seen in quite some time.  Other than the market’s brief reaction to the Brexit, we really haven’t seen much upheaval since the depths of the financial crisis.

With tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and both feet on the gas of our fiscal policy here in the U.S., there’s a good chance the choppy waters are here to stay.

Since I’ve been getting a ton of questions recently about how to handle market volatility, I figured it’d be a good subject for an online training.  So, this Tuesday, March 6th, from 10-11am PST / 1-2pm EST, I’ll be hosting a free online training on how to protect your retirement accounts during market corrections.  Here’s the link to register.

Investing in 2018: Growth vs. Value

Investing in 2018: Growth vs. Value

Growth or value — what’s your style?  The debate surrounding which strategy is superior has raged on for ages.  For a quick refresher, growth investors look for stocks that will grow at a high rate for a relatively short period of time. Value investors look for stocks that are currently undervalued and are expected to increase to their true value over a longer time horizon.

Companies like Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google (AKA, the FANG stocks) fall into the growth category, and paced the market in 2017 with an exceptionally strong year.  Looking ahead, what should we expect in 2018?  Should we favor growth strategies, given the momentum of the FANG stocks?  Or should we expect value shares to outperform?

Reviewing 2017 Market Performance Across Asset Classes

Reviewing 2017 Market Performance Across Asset Classes

On the whole, 2017 saw strong performance across nearly all asset classes around the globe.  Led by the emerging markets, stocks posted another year of gains with extremely low volatility.  Here in the US the S&P 500 returned close to 20%, but were outpaced by stocks abroad.

Tax Reform: Your Household & the Economy

Tax Reform: Your Household & the Economy

The Tax Cut & Jobs Act was passed by Republicans at on December 22nd, affecting our filings for 2018 and beyond.  The new law sets seven individual income brackets at 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35%, and 37%.  It also nearly doubles the standard deduction, to $12,000 for single filers and $24,000 for joint filers.

The Republicans’ objective in this bill was to simplify the tax code.  The sound bite you’ve probably heard is that they’d like everyone to be able to “file their taxes on an index card”.  The new law mostly accomplishes that objective.  The vast majority of Americans will end up claiming the new standard deduction instead of itemizing. 

So......What Should We Make of Bitcoin?

So......What Should We Make of Bitcoin?

If you’ve caught more than four seconds’ worth of financial media in the last 12 months, you’ve undoubtedly heard the “Bitcoin” mentioned at least a few times.  Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are receiving intense media coverage after skyrocketing in value in 2017.

So what should you make of it all?  Does bitcoin, ethereum, or another digital currency deserve a place in your portfolio?  First, let’s remember what bitcoins actually are.  Bitcoins, like all other digital currencies, are simply strings of computer code.  There’s no paper money or metal coins involved.  There’s no central bank issuing the currency, nor a regulator or nation that stands behind it.